Criminal policy through the lens of contingency and eventfulness

Yuriy Pudovochkin; Mihail Babaev

VAK Russia 5.1.4 UDC 343.01 CSCSTI 10.77 Russian Classification of Professions by Education 40.07.02 Russian Library and Bibliographic Classification 67408 Russian Trade and Bibliographic Classification 7

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CRIMINAL POLICY THROUGH THE LENS OF CONTINGENCY AND EVENTFULNESS Criminal policy through the lens of contingency and eventfulness

АА Аа

Published in Vestnik of the St. Petersburg University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia · Volume 2026, Issue 3 · Pages 222–233 · Rubric: CRIMINAL LAW SCIENCES

Received: 04.06.2026 Accepted: 25.09.2026 Published: 30.09.2026 Language of publication: RUS

Authors

Yuriy Pudovochkin

ORCID Scopus SPIN

Mihail Babaev

ORCID

Yuriy Pudovochkin

Academic degree: doctor of jurisprudence sciences

Science rang: professor

Moscow State Law University named after O. E. Kutafin Russian Federation

ORCID Scopus SPIN

Mihail Babaev

Academic degree: doctor of jurisprudence sciences

Science rang: professor

Moskovskiy gosudarstvennyy yuridicheskiy universitet imeni O. E. Kutafina (MGYuA) Russian Federation

ORCID

ABSTRACT

Introduction. The epistemology of social sciences is gradually moving beyond the principle of rigid determinism in explaining social phenomena and processes, acknowledging the role of contingent circumstances in their emergence and development. However, the role of contingency has not been fully explored in criminal policy studies. Contingency in criminal policy is of interest not only in its own right, but also as a research tool that allows for the identification of new significant characteristics of criminal policy and the determination of unconventional directions for its investigation. Methods. This article critically examines the traditional paradigm of criminal policy as an objective process managed by specialised, constitutionally legitimate authorities. Using general logical methods (analysis, synthesis, deduction) and analytical methods (modeling, abstraction), the study applies systemic and interdisciplinary approaches to uncover new characteristics of criminal policy through the category of contingency. Results. The study explores three key dimensions of the contingent-political nexus: institutional structures, policy formation processes, and determinacy. Criminal policy is shaped not only by formal institutions but also by informal governance networks and political leadership, giving subjective factors significant influence. The study reveals the potential of examining criminal policy within the framework of event oriented political science, which takes into account the possibility of the deliberate use of contingent events in criminal policy and the deliberate construction of events for the purpose of making unforeseen decisions. A paradigmatic shift is identified in criminal policy determination: from reactive consequence management to proactive risk prevention. This offers a deeper understanding of criminal policy formation and implementation in contexts where determinacy gives way to multiple possible scenarios.

KEYWORDS

criminal policy, determinants of criminal policy, criminal policy as a process, contingent events, contingency, actors of criminal policy, political leader, lobbying, event-driven nature of criminal policy, criminal policy event, uncertainty of criminal policy, criminal policy risk, unpredictable consequences of criminal policy

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GOST

Pudovochkin Y. E., Babaev M. M. Criminal policy through the lens of contingency and eventfulness // Vestnik of the St. Petersburg University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia. 2026. no. 3. pp. 222-233. URL: https://vestnikkf.ru/en/nauka/publications/article/6a9c166c32807fdbab874d32/criminal-policy-through-the-lens-of-contingency-and-eventfulness/view. (Date of access 02.10.2026).

MLA

Yuriy Pudovochkin, Babaev M. M.. "Criminal policy through the lens of contingency and eventfulness." Vestnik of the St. Petersburg University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia 2026.3 (2026): 222-233. URL: https://vestnikkf.ru/en/nauka/publications/article/6a9c166c32807fdbab874d32/criminal-policy-through-the-lens-of-contingency-and-eventfulness/view.

APA

Pudovochkin Y. E., Babaev M. M. (2026). Criminal policy through the lens of contingency and eventfulness. Vestnik of the St. Petersburg University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, 2026(3), 222-233. URL: https://vestnikkf.ru/en/nauka/publications/article/6a9c166c32807fdbab874d32/criminal-policy-through-the-lens-of-contingency-and-eventfulness/view

Chicago

Yuriy Pudovochkin, Babaev M. M.. "Criminal policy through the lens of contingency and eventfulness." Vestnik of the St. Petersburg University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia 2026, no. 3 (2026): 222-233. URL: https://vestnikkf.ru/en/nauka/publications/article/6a9c166c32807fdbab874d32/criminal-policy-through-the-lens-of-contingency-and-eventfulness/view.

WIKI

{{cite journal | author = Pudovochkin Y. E., Babaev M. M. | title = Criminal policy through the lens of contingency and eventfulness | journal = Vestnik of the St. Petersburg University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia | year = 2026 | volume = 2026 | issue = 3 | pages = 222-233 | url = https://vestnikkf.ru/en/nauka/publications/article/6a9c166c32807fdbab874d32/criminal-policy-through-the-lens-of-contingency-and-eventfulness/view }}

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