<!DOCTYPE article
PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.4 20190208//EN"
       "JATS-journalpublishing1.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.4" xml:lang="en">
 <front>
  <journal-meta>
   <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">Economic policy and national security</journal-id>
   <journal-title-group>
    <journal-title xml:lang="en">Economic policy and national security</journal-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Экономическая политика и национальная безопасность</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </journal-title-group>
   <issn publication-format="online">3033-6554</issn>
  </journal-meta>
  <article-meta>
   <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">108799</article-id>
   <article-categories>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="ru">
     <subject>Противодействие теневой экономике как угрозе национальной безопасности</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group subj-group-type="toc-heading" xml:lang="en">
     <subject>Countering the Shadow Economy as a Threat to National Security</subject>
    </subj-group>
    <subj-group>
     <subject>Противодействие теневой экономике как угрозе национальной безопасности</subject>
    </subj-group>
   </article-categories>
   <title-group>
    <article-title xml:lang="en">Assessing the consequences of tax evasion as a result of aggressive tax planning schemes</article-title>
    <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
     <trans-title>Оценка последствий уклонения от уплаты налогов как результата использования схем агрессивного налогового планирования</trans-title>
    </trans-title-group>
   </title-group>
   <contrib-group content-type="authors">
    <contrib contrib-type="author">
     <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9802-7356</contrib-id>
     <name-alternatives>
      <name xml:lang="ru">
       <surname>Молодых</surname>
       <given-names>Владимир Анатольевич</given-names>
      </name>
      <name xml:lang="en">
       <surname>Molodyh</surname>
       <given-names>Vladimir Anatol'evich</given-names>
      </name>
     </name-alternatives>
     <email>v.a.molodyh@yandex.ru</email>
     <bio xml:lang="ru">
      <p>кандидат экономических наук;</p>
     </bio>
     <bio xml:lang="en">
      <p>candidate of economic sciences;</p>
     </bio>
     <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/>
    </contrib>
   </contrib-group>
   <aff-alternatives id="aff-1">
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="ru">Санкт-Петербургский университет МВД России</institution>
     <city>St Petersburg</city>
     <country>RU</country>
    </aff>
    <aff>
     <institution xml:lang="en">St. Petersburg University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia</institution>
     <city>St Petersburg</city>
     <country>RU</country>
    </aff>
   </aff-alternatives>
   <pub-date publication-format="print" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2025-11-21T00:00:00+03:00">
    <day>21</day>
    <month>11</month>
    <year>2025</year>
   </pub-date>
   <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2025-11-21T00:00:00+03:00">
    <day>21</day>
    <month>11</month>
    <year>2025</year>
   </pub-date>
   <issue>2</issue>
   <fpage>75</fpage>
   <lpage>87</lpage>
   <history>
    <date date-type="received" iso-8601-date="2025-09-02T00:00:00+03:00">
     <day>02</day>
     <month>09</month>
     <year>2025</year>
    </date>
    <date date-type="accepted" iso-8601-date="2025-09-16T00:00:00+03:00">
     <day>16</day>
     <month>09</month>
     <year>2025</year>
    </date>
   </history>
   <self-uri xlink:href="https://vestnikkf.ru/en/nauka/article/108799/view">https://vestnikkf.ru/en/nauka/article/108799/view</self-uri>
   <abstract xml:lang="ru">
    <p>Введение. Глобализация экономических отношений привела к снижению важности соблюдения налогового законодательства, в результате чего транснациональные компании стали активно использовать стратегии агрессивного налогового планирования и уклоняться от уплаты налогов с целью минимизации налогового бремени как важного элемента сокращения затрат. Стратегия агрессивного налогового планирования дает существенные преимущества с точки зрения финансовых показателей, таких как увеличение денежного потока для поддержания роста и существенное увеличение чистой прибыли после уплаты налогов. Однако компании, уклоняющиеся от уплаты налогов, несут дополнительные транзакционные издержки, величина которых зависит от ряда характеристик компаний. Цель исследования заключается в определении факторов и характеристик компаний, которые влияют на вероятность выбора стратегий уклонения от уплаты налогов, а также оценка позитивных и негативных&#13;
последствий для налогоплательщиков в результате их выбора. Методы. В статье использованы инструменты корреляционно-регрессионного анализа, а также алгоритмы сопоставления, а именно: ближайших соседей и ядра. В качестве эмпирической базы использовались данные опросов компаний, проводимые Всемирным банком. Результаты исследования показали, что важными факторами, влияющими на выбор стратегии уклонения от уплаты налогов, являются характеристики фирмы, а не менеджмента. Уровень образования и опыт менеджера не оказали существенного влияния на законопослушность фирмы. Статистически значимыми факторами, снижающими вероятность выбора стратегии уклонения от уплаты налогов, оказались следующие характеристики: юридическая структура, год создания, инновационный потенциал, количество сотрудников, структура активов и результаты деятельности. В данном контексте при разработке стратегий противодействия уклонению от уплаты налогов необходимо акцентировать внимание на экономических последствиях трех составляющих, а именно: прозрачность финансовой отчетности, стоимость капитала, стоимость фирмы.</p>
   </abstract>
   <trans-abstract xml:lang="en">
    <p>Introduction. The globalisation of economic relations has led to a decline in the importance of tax compliance, resulting in multinational companies actively using aggressive tax planning strategies and tax avoidance to minimise their tax burden as an important element of cost reduction. An aggressive tax planning strategy offers significant advantages in terms of financial performance, such as increased cash flow to support growth and a substantial increase in net income after tax. However, companies that evade taxes incur additional transaction costs, the amount of which depends on a number of company characteristics. The purpose of the study is to identify the factors and characteristics of companies that influence the likelihood of choosing tax avoidance strategies, as well as to assess the positive and negative consequences for taxpayers as a result of their choices. Methods. The article used correlation and regression analysis tools, as well as matching algorithms, namely, nearest neighbor matching, radius matching, and core matching. Data from company surveys&#13;
conducted by the World Bank were used as an empirical basis. The results of the study showed that the characteristics of the firm, rather than those of its management, are important factors influencing the choice of tax avoidance strategy. The level of education and experience of the manager did not have a significant impact on the firm's compliance with the law. The following characteristics were found to be statistically significant factors reducing the likelihood of choosing a tax avoidance strategy: legal structure, year of establishment, innovative potential, number of employees, asset structure, and performance results.</p>
   </trans-abstract>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="ru">
    <kwd>уклонение от уплаты налогов</kwd>
    <kwd>налоговое планирование</kwd>
    <kwd>стоимость компании</kwd>
    <kwd>финансовая отчетность</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
   <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
    <kwd>tax evasion</kwd>
    <kwd>tax planning</kwd>
    <kwd>company value</kwd>
    <kwd>financial reporting</kwd>
   </kwd-group>
  </article-meta>
 </front>
 <body>
  <p></p>
 </body>
 <back>
  <ref-list>
   <ref id="B1">
    <label>1.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Ануфриева Е. М. Понятие уклонения от уплаты налогов в системе налоговых отношений // Финансы и кредит. 2008. № 44 (332). С. 35–41.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Anufrieva, Elena. M. 2008. “Ponyatie ukloneniya ot uplaty nalogov v sisteme nalogovyh otnoshenij” [“The concept of tax evasion in the system of tax relations”] (In Russ.). Finansy i kredit [Finance and credit], 332 no. 44:35–41.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B2">
    <label>2.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Молодых В. А., Трысячный В. И. Влияние финансовых преступлений на динамику устойчивого развития эко¬номических систем // Финансовый менеджмент. 2024. № 10. С. 285–292.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Molodyh, Vladimir A. and Vladimir I. Trysyachnyj. 2024. “Vliyanie finansovyh prestuplenij na dinamiku ustojchivogo razvitiya ekonomicheskih system” [“The impact of financial crimes on the dynamics of sustainable development of economic systems”] (In Russ.). Finansovyj menedzhment [Financial Management], no. 10: 285–92.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B3">
    <label>3.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Akamah H. T., Omer T. C., Shu S. Q. Financial constraints and future tax outcome volatility // Journal of Business Finance and Accounting. 2021. Vol. 48. No. 3-4. P. 637–665. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbfa.12495</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Akamah, Herita T., Thomas C. Omer, and Sydney Qing Shu. 2021. “Financial constraints and future tax outcome volatility.” Journal of Business Finance &amp; Accounting. 48, no. 3-4:637–65. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbfa.12495</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B4">
    <label>4.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Atwood T. J., Lewellen C. The complementarity between tax avoidance and manager diversion: Evidence from tax haven firms // Contemporary Accounting Research. 2019. Vol. 36. No. 1. P. 259–294. https://doi.org/10.1111/1911-3846.12421</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Atwood, T. J., and Christina Lewellen. 2019. “The complementarity between tax avoidance and manager diversion: Evidence from tax haven firms.” Contemporary Accounting Research 36, no. 1:259–94. https://doi.org/10.1111/1911- 3846.12421</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B5">
    <label>5.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Dakhli A. The impact of ownership structure on corporate tax avoidance with corporate social responsibility as mediating variable // Journal of Financial Crime. 2022. Vol. 29. No. 3. P. 836–852. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFC-07-2021-0152</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Dakhli, Anissa. 2022. “The impact of ownership structure on corporate tax avoidance with corporate social responsibility as mediating variable.” Journal of Financial Crime 29, no. 3 (August):836–52. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFC-07- 2021-0152</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B6">
    <label>6.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Desai M. A., Dyck A., Zingales L. Theft and taxes // Journal of Financial Economics. 2007. Vol. 84. P. 591–623. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.629350</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Desai, Mihir A., Alexander Dyck, and Luigi Zingales. 2007. “Theft and taxes.” Journal of financial economics 84, no. 3:591–623. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.629350</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B7">
    <label>7.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Dhawan A., Ma L., Kim M. H. Effect of corporate tax avoidance activities on firm bankruptcy risk // Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics. 2020. Vol. 16. No. 2. P. 100187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcae.2020.100187</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Dhawan, Anirudh, Liangbo Ma, and Maria H. Kim. 2020. “Effect of corporate tax avoidance activities on firm bankruptcy risk.” Journal of Contemporary Accounting &amp; Economics 16, no. 2:100187. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcae.2020.100187</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B8">
    <label>8.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Demerjian P. R., Owens E. L. Measuring the probability of financial covenant violation in private debt contracts // Journal of Accounting and Economics. 2016. Vol. 61. No. 2-3. P. 433–447. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2015.11.001</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Demerjian, Peter R., and Edward L. Owens. 2016. “Measuring the probability of financial covenant violation in private debt contracts.” Journal of Accounting and Economics 61, no. 2-3:433–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2015.11.001</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B9">
    <label>9.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Demiroglu C., James C. M. The information content of bank loan covenants // The Review of Financial Studies. 2010. Vol. 23. No. 10. P. 3700–3737. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.959393</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Demiroglu, Cem, and Christopher M. James. 2010. “The information content of bank loan covenants.” The Review of Financial Studies 23, no. 10:3700–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.959393</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B10">
    <label>10.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Guenther D. A., Njoroge K., Williams B. M. Allocation of internal cash flow when firms pay less tax // The Accounting review. 2020. Vol. 95. No. 5. P. 185–210. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-52623</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Guenther, David A., Kenneth Njoroge, and Brian M. Williams. 2020. “Allocation of internal cash flow when firms pay less tax.” The Accounting Review 95, no. 5:185–210. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr-52623</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B11">
    <label>11.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Hanlon M., Heitzman S. A review of tax research // Journal of Accounting and Economics. 2010. Vol. 50. No. 2-3. P. 127–178. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2010.09.002</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Hanlon, Michelle, and Shane Heitzman. 2010. “A review of tax research.” Journal of accounting and Economics 50, no 2-3:127–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jacceco.2010.09.002</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B12">
    <label>12.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Hasan M. M., Lobo G. J., Qiu B. 2021. Organizational capital, corporate tax avoidance, and firm value // Journal of Corporate Finance. Vol. 70. No. 1-2. P. 102050. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.102050</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Hasan, Mostafa M., and Gerald J. Lobo, Buhui Qiu. 2021. “Organizational capital, corporate tax avoidance, and firm value.” Journal of Corporate Finance 70., no. 1-2 (October):102050. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2021.102050</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B13">
    <label>13.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Singh M., Duhoon A. Corporate tax avoidance: a systematic literature review and future research directions // LBS Journal of Management &amp; Research. 2023. Vol. 21. No. 2. P. 197–217.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Singh, Mohinder, and Anshu Duhoon. 2023. “Corporate tax avoidance: a systematic literature review and future research directions.” LBS Journal of Management &amp; Research 21, no. 2 (September):197–217.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B14">
    <label>14.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Scholes M. S. [et al.]. Taxes and business strategy : A planning approach. 2nd ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ : Prentice Hall, 2002. 556 p.</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Scholes, Myron S. [et al.]. 2002. Taxes and business strategy : A planning approach. 2nd ed., 556. Upper Saddle River, NJ : Prentice Hall.</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B15">
    <label>15.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Law K. K., Mills L. F. Taxes and financial constraints: Evidence from linguistic cues // Journal of Accounting Research. 2015. Vol. 53. No. 4. P. 777–819. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.12081</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Law, Kelvin KF, and Lillian F. Mills. 2015. “Taxes and financial constraints: Evidence from linguistic cues.” Journal of Accounting Research 53, no. 4:777–819. https://doi.org/10.1111/1475-679X.12081</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
   <ref id="B16">
    <label>16.</label>
    <citation-alternatives>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Wilson R. J. An examination of corporate tax shelter participants // The Accounting Review. 2009. Vol. 84. No. 3. P. 969–999. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2009.84.3.969</mixed-citation>
     <mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Wilson, Ryan J. 2009. “An examination of corporate tax shelter participants.” The accounting review 84, no. 3:969–99. https://doi.org/10.2308/accr.2009.84.3.969</mixed-citation>
    </citation-alternatives>
   </ref>
  </ref-list>
 </back>
</article>
